In the wake of one of the worst snow seasons on record for the West as a whole in 2025-2026 (but a good snow season for the East), it’s time to shift gears and take a look at the upcoming 2026-2027 winter forecast for the major ski regions of the Northern Hemisphere. 

A well-advertised and potentially historic super El Niño emerging this season played a big role in putting together this season’s outlook. 

We most strongly considered past strong to super El Niño winters with a similar distribution of sea surface temperatures to this one in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, while also examining other oceanic and atmospheric signals, as well as seasonal model data, in producing this outlook. 

As a reminder, winter outlooks contain an inherent degree of uncertainty since so many factors in the atmosphere are not predictable months or even weeks in advance.

When it comes to planning ski trips around storms, 15-day snow and weather forecasts, available with an OpenSnow subscription, are always going to be your best bet over seasonal outlooks.

Now, let’s dive into the seasonal forecast…

Winter 2026-2027 Forecast for North America

Snowfall:

Our winter forecast favors above-normal snowfall across the Southwest U.S., including California, Utah, and Southern & Eastern Colorado.

Below-normal snowfall is favored across the northern-tier of the U.S. and much of Canada, as well as western portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

Areas in the “equal chances” zones could go either way, with roughly equal odds of above, below, or near average snowfall. 

Temperature:

We are favoring above-average temperatures across a large portion of North America, including roughly the northern 2/3rds of the U.S. along with much of Canada.

Historically, cold air originating in the Arctic has a hard time spilling southward into Southern Canada and the U.S. during strong El Niño years. That’s not to say it won’t happen; it’s just expected to happen less frequently than usual.

Across the Southwest U.S. and near the Gulf Coast in the Southeast, there are equal chances of above- or below-normal temperatures, largely due to an active southern storm track that is favored during strong El Niño winters, which in turn favors more cloud cover than usual. 

While this temperature outlook for the West might seem ominous after last season, it’s important to point out that this outlook only shows whether above- or below-normal temperatures are favored, and does not necessarily mean “well above normal” like what we saw in the West last season.

Last winter was exceptionally warm – the warmest on record for a large portion of the West, and it’s unlikely it will be that warm again this winter even if this above-average outlook verifies.

Precipitation:

The precipitation portion of this outlook refers to rain and snow-water-equivalent (how much water is contained in the snow).

We are projecting above-normal precipitation across a large portion of the U.S., including the West Coast, Southwest, Southern Plains, Southeast, and East Coast as strong El Niños favor an active southern storm track.

Northern portions of the U.S. and Southern Canada have equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation.

Below-normal precipitation is favored across central and northern portions of British Columbia and Alberta.

California & Nevada

  • Snowfall – Above-normal favored
  • Seasonality – January to March favored
  • Temperature – Above-normal favored for northern areas (including Tahoe)

First, we’ll admit that the last super El Niño of 2015-2016 was not as wet or as snowy as expected in this area (it was near average around Tahoe, and below in SoCal).

However, that was just one data point, and when considering all of the other historical analog years and seasonal model data, there is still a strong signal for above-average precipitation and above-average snowfall.

While all ski regions in California, including Tahoe, are favored for above-average snowfall based on historical analogs, the signal is strongest in the Central Sierra, including Mammoth and China Peak.

SoCal ski resorts such as Mountain High and Snow Summit also tend to see disproportionately higher snowfall in El Niño winters (especially strong ones) compared to neutral or La Niña winters. 

One thing to keep in mind is that strong El Niño years tend to be warmer with an active subtropical jet stream. This means that while major snow events can occur, warm atmospheric rivers that bring rain and high snow levels to the mountains can also occur.

In terms of timing, historical analogs favor a somewhat slower start in December, followed by a strong signal for above-normal snow mid to late season from January to March. 

-By Alan Smith, Meteorologist