Stay-at-home order likely to be extended for South Lake Tahoe and the Sacramento Region

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE, Calif. - After a few days of being above the benchmark of 15 percent, hospitals in the Sacramento Region have fallen below that number of available ICU beds. South Lake Tahoe and El Dorado County are part of the Sacramento Region which fell under Governor Newsom's Stay-at-Home Order on December 10, 2020.

As of December 31, the Sacramento Region ICU availability was 14.4 percent.

The order was set to last 21 days, expiring on December 31 at 11:59 p.m. if the region was above the threshold of 15 percent ICU bed availability and its four-week projections show the expectation of staying about that threshold.

Even though the official word from the Governor's office has not been made, it is expected El Dorado County, Alpine County and the rest of the Sacramento Region will have the Stay-at-Home order is extended.

The California Department of Public Health said it will release updated information on Saturday, January 2, 2021 based on the region’s data but said in a press release it expects the order to remain in effect.

"The chances of this happening [removal of Stay-at-Home order] January 1st are slim to none," said Alpine County Public Health Officer Dr. Richard Johnson. "Therefore, I would full expect that we will continue to be under this order for most of, if not all of, the month of January."

The state order allows for essential travel only, something not evident as South Lake Tahoe has been full of holiday vacationers, even under the ban. Motels and vacation home rentals were not supposed to be rented to those travelers, though many properties have been close to full this December.

If extended, the Stay-at-Home order would continue for travel, lodging and other businesses. Restaurants can serve only to-go orders with no inside or outside seating, salons and personal care services are closed, retail can hold only 20 percent of approved occupancy, stand-alone grocery can be at 35 percent occupancy.

Airbnb responded to a request by officials from Truckee, Placer County and El Dorado County and blocked (but did not cancel) new vacation rental reservations in the region from December 28 to January 1. El Dorado County Supervisor Sue Novasel said the Town of Truckee has reached out to Airbnb again to see if they can extend the block to match the stay-at-home order dates.

Earlier this week the Stay-At-Home order was extended for the Southern California Region and San Joaquin Valley Region due to their current ICU availability being 0 percent. The Bay Area had 8.5 percent availability and Northern California Region 34.1 percent on the last day of 2020.

El Dorado County's hospitals, Barton and Marshall, have been at the roughly the same occupancy levels since the Stay-at-Home order went into effect though cases numbers swelled. On December 10 there were 25 hospitalized due to COVID-19, 3,628 cases and eight deaths. On January 1, 2021 there are 29 hospitalizations, 5,719 cases and 24 deaths.

Barton Hospital is experiencing an increase in non-COVID patients due to the winter holiday season, although slips/falls/ski-related accidents are lower than prior years for December, said Barton Health Director of Marketing and Public Relations Mindi Befu. "ICU capacity varies daily and currently about half of our ICU patients have been diagnosed with COVID-19."

December 10 Tier Assessment
The 7-day positivity rate for El Dorado County is 12.4 percent positivity and the 14-day rate of new cases is 702.
Adjusted case rate: 39.4
Positivity rate: 13.3%
Health equity quartile positivity rate: 13.2%

December 31 Tier Assessment
The 7-day positivity rate for El Dorado County is 11.8 percent positivity and the 14-day rate of new cases is 675.
Adjusted case rate: 42.1
Positivity rate: 11.9%
Health equity quartile positivity rate: 12.4%

Statewide, the 7-day positivity rate is currently 11.6% and the 14-day positivity rate is 11.9%.

South Lake Tahoe went from a December 10 rate per 100,000 people of 1,187 to its December 31 of 562 per 100,000 rate. Placerville on December 10, 543 per 100,000, and on December 31, 1019 per 100,000. South Lake Tahoe has been trending downward recently as the region experienced a surge of cases after Thanksgiving.

Another surge is expected by health officials two weeks after Christmas, then another two weeks after New Years Eve.

The ICU capacity projections are based on four factors: current estimated regional ICU capacity available, measure of current community transmission, current regional case rates and the proportion of ICU cases being admitted. Decreasing community transmission and increasing the health system capacity can help a region's projected ICU capacity so they can exit the order," said the California Department of Public Health in a press release on December 31.