California still remains in drought after December storms, though less severe

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE, Calif. - Following a very wet and rather cold December across California, much drier (as well as warmer) weather is now expected in many parts of the state for the foreseeable future. A persistent ridge that had been anchored for weeks over the Gulf of Alaska shifts eastward toward the West Coast.

The record-breaking snow in the Sierra last week put the current snowpack at 202 percent above average for this time of year, and reservoirs in California surged with Folsom lake seeing almost 50 feet of added water, and 90 feet at Lake Oroville.

This storm moved most of California from the "exceptional drought" category into widespread "severe" drought.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, during the past two weeks, precipitation has averaged 150 to 300 percent of normal, or more, throughout nearly all of California. The big storms in December supported a large 1-category improvement on the drought maps to California along with parts of Nevada and Utah.

How long will the good news last?

The state will need to see significant rain and snow over the next two months to offset the lack of precipitation over the past two years (which were the state's fifth and second driest on record).

“We could not have asked for a better December in terms of Sierra snow and rain,” said Department of Water Resources Director Karla Nemeth after last week's snowpack measurement. “But Californians need to be aware that even these big storms may not refill our major reservoirs during the next few months. We need more storms and average temperatures this winter and spring, and we can’t be sure it’s coming. So, it’s important that we continue to do our part to keep conserving – we will need that water this summer.”

“A wet start to the year doesn’t mean this year will end up above average once it’s all said and done,” said Sean de Guzman, manager of the Department of Water Resources’ snow surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit as he measured the snow at Phillips Station Thursday.

Long-range forecasting from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows no strong signals on what will or will not incur. Near normal is expected. It was a very good December but the National Weather Service (NWS) in Reno said they are not expecting the same in the near future. There are some storms out there that "look good" but do not necessarily set a long-term trend towards heavy snow.

DWR said it will take time to move completely out of a drought, more than a couple of months of an above-average snowpack.

A strong snowpack this spring will be telling and help keep water reserves.

The current pattern shows no significant storm patterns in the 10-day period after Friday, but there is a chance for some weak waves through the remainder of January, according to Dustin Norman, a forecaster for NWS Reno.

In the Pacific we're currently in a La Nina season said Norman and they expect it to remain through February. He said there is a 10 percent chance of it returning to neutral, 90 percent chance remaining La Nina.

La Nina conditions are typically below-average precipitation for California, wetter in the Pacific Northwest, and warmer and drier in the South.

For an interactive drought monitor map, visit https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA.

For the outlook maps from NOAA, visit https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1.