State’s population growth expected to outstrip water conservation in coming years

California water agencies are on track to satisfy a state mandate to reduce water consumption 20 percent by 2020. But according to their own projections, that savings won’t be enough to keep up with population growth just a decade later.

A 2009 state law requires urban water agencies to reduce per-capita water consumption 20 percent by 2020, compared with use at the start of the century. Most agencies are on track to reach that goal, and have made even more progress thanks to emergency cuts over the past year triggered by the ongoing drought.

However, by 2030, the data show, these savings will be more than erased by anticipated population growth. According to projections by the water agencies themselves, their total water deliveries will increase 16 percent by 2030 compared to their estimates for 2015.

California’s population, already larger than all other Western states combined, is expected to grow 14 percent during that same period, reaching an estimated 44 million people by 2030, according to the state Department of Finance.

If those projections hold, the result would be an additional 1 million acre-feet of water demand statewide – about equal to the capacity of Folsom Reservoir – by 2030. This would occur even as people use less water to meet the 20 percent reduction goal.

“We are having a hard time managing the scarce water we have now,” said Newsha Ajami, director of urban water policy at Water in the West, a research group at Stanford University. “The problem is, every time the drought ends we snap out of it, and we don’t actually start planning for the next drought. We need to help people understand what this means for future generations.”

In January 2014, Gov. Jerry Brown signed an emergency drought proclamation calling on all Californians to cut their water use 20 percent compared with 2013 in response to the worsening drought. This temporary measure is different from the 2020 goal, which is meant to be a permanent reduction in water use compared to what Californians were consuming in a base year, which for most water agencies is 1999.

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