Can a mega fire happen in Lake Tahoe?

Before that question can be answered, we need to understand what a mega fire is. To be a mega fire it needs to meet these five points:

1. Starts near or in a high fire danger area during approaching or actual red flag conditions,
2. Escapes the initial attack,

3. Develops into a campaign fire covering a large area,
4. Requires thousand of firefighters and extensive additional resources to bring final containment,
5. Often cause huge property and other cultural losses in addition to vegetation destroyed.

A mega fire will cost $75-$100 million in suppression costs alone, plus property and other resources destroyed.

According to a report by Bob Cavage and Tony Morris presented at the Aerial Firefighting Conference in Washington, D.C. in May 2011, fire fighters can be highly trained and prepared, and utilize the best equipment and procedures, but that won't matter if fuel, terrain and weather cause a fire to get out of control.

Challenges with many wildfires start with their not being attacked quickly enough with effective resources. Air tankers are not normally near by, and once they get there they do not carry enough suppressant to attack the heads of big fires. They also can't fly at night nor can they fly in high winds.

So how do you fight mega fires? Since the occur during "Red Flag Warnings," preparation is key so a quicker, more effective initial attack can be made.

How does one beat Mother Nature?

You can't.

"The fire season has changed, the climate is warmer," said South Lake Tahoe Fire Chief Jeff Meston. Climate change is affecting weather, temperatures, winds, all the ingredients of a big fire when mixed.

But, you can be ready. This is why fire departments around Lake Tahoe constantly work on communication, education and procedures, and through collaboration have a command system prepared should a fire start in the Basin.

The initial attack is key in fighting the mega fire, and with a smaller fire-fighting force, it would take time for those at homes off the hill, or off duty to get to the scene.

Agencies in Tahoe just don't have extra, said Chief Meston. No extra crews, no extra equipment.

In September of 1923, the Berkeley Fire consumed 640 structures including 584 homes in densely build neighborhoods near the U.C. Berkeley campus. The fire began in undeveloped chaparral and grasslands and was propelled by a strong, gusty, and intensely dry northeasterly wind. The wooden homes had no chance. Homes built after the fire were created with stucco and tile roofs (now know as a California Mission-style architecture that came out of necessity).

The Oakland Hills Fire of 1991 was a brush fire that firefighters thought they had under control on a Saturday night. By Sunday morning high winds up to 65 mph restarted the fire and it quickly went through the hills, burning 1,520 acres, killing 25 people and destroying 2,843 homes.

The major fires burning currently in Northern California were moved to mega status much in the same way: dry air, high winds, low humidity.

"The fires are predictable," said Chief Meston. He explained the Tubbs Fire currently burning in the Wine Country is following the path of the Wine Country Fire of 1964, the Hanley Fire. Though that one was started by a discarded cigarette, high heat and winds propelled the flames into several different fires that through 83,000 acres for a full week.

In the Bay Area there are about 200 fire engines within 90 minutes of a fire. In South Lake Tahoe there are three people on three engine, plus other resources around the lake, but they are assigned to protect their own communities and can't always leave their jurisdiction.

One other difference in the Basin is the added tree canopy, adding more fuels for fire fighters to battle. A larger percentage of those trees are the same height, explained Meston, because of the clear-cutting of the whole Basin during the 1859-1880 silver rush for the Comstock Lode in Virginia City. New trees were planted about the same time, leaving the current tree canopy full of one-size of tree.

So in answer to the question, can a mega fire start in Lake Tahoe, the answer is "yes". But since 99 percent of fires are not of the Goliath size, home owners and residents can do a lot to prepare their property in case of a fire.

"We live in a dangerous place," said Chief Meston. "A beautiful place but in a fire dangerous area."

"Day to day, do your defensible space and we'll get there in time in case of a fire," said Chief Meston. "Add humidity, wind, we won't be able to get there. Defensible space works under normal conditions."

Non-combustible roofs and interior sprinkler systems will do no good in protecting a building in a mega fire. Electricity goes out and intense hit turns granite, stucco, grass, appliances and even cement, to dust.

The Lake Tahoe Regional Fire Chiefs Association, Sierra Front Wildfire Cooperators, the Lake Tahoe Basin Multi-Agency Coordinating Group, the Tahoe Fire and Fuels Team (TFFT) all study the Lake Tahoe Basin and plan for fire, and how they'd coordinate firefighting efforts.

Not only are they planning, but since fires tend to occur in high use areas near the Lake, along trails, and near recreation areas at higher elevations, prevention efforts have had a positive impact. Suppression efforts at the initial attack

"The success of suppression operations has been improved through the interagency coordination of all agencies involved in fire protection and emergency response," according to a wildfire document prepared by the Basin fire agencies. The have completed a comprehensive study of every area of the Lake Tahoe Basin, including each neighborhood in South Lake Tahoe. The have evaluated ingress, egress, age of homes, populations and fire history as well as identified vulnerabilities. (see map in this story).

Chief Meston is working on the local "Standards of Cover" (or SOC), a two-inch binder full of how to cover fires in South Lake Tahoe.

He said that even though California is built to burn (dry terrain, hills, high winds, low humidity), 99 out of 100 times doing due diligence and clearing out a 30-foot perimeter around homes will be enough. Removing pine needles from roofs and the ground, cutting down dead trees, clearing brush are just a few things residents can do. At the home, thicker pane windows help in the case of a fire, and make sure both your blinds and windows are closed if fire is near. People in Tahoe love their outdoor decks but they are dangerous in a fire.

Do:
Be Smart
Be vigilant on a Red Flag day
Your fuels management
Make good decisions
Get educated on fire safety
Have tools necessary to be successful in a fire

And if you're told to evacuate, don't hesitate and "go!" said Meston.