Drought outlook grim for Lake Tahoe and California

The graphics and news released this week for the seasonal drought outlook for the Sierra Nevada and the rest of the west look rather grim for those wanting a big winter and extra water to replenish lakes, reservoirs and rivers.

According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the drought ends for some parts of Northern California, but mild temperatures and below average precipitation will cause the drought to continue.

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued the U.S. Winter Outlook on Thursday, saying that La Nina is expected to influence winter conditions this year. CPC issued a La Nina watch this month, predicting the climate phenomenon is likely to develop in late fall or early winter. La Nina favors drier, warmer winters in the southern U.S and wetter, cooler conditions in the northern U.S. If La Nina conditions materialize, forecasters say it should be weak and potentially short-lived.

Lake Tahoe is right in the middle of the drier and wetter regions but smack dab in the middle of warmer than average temperatures.

“This climate outlook provides the most likely outcome for the upcoming winter season, but it also provides the public with a good reminder that winter is just up ahead and it’s a good time to prepare for typical winter hazards, such as extreme cold and snowstorms,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Regardless of the outlook, there is always some chance for extreme winter weather, so prepare now for what might come later this winter.”

Other factors that often play a role in the winter weather include the Arctic Oscillation, which influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and create nor'easters on the East Coast, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can affect the number of heavy rain events in the Pacific Northwest.

Video Forecast