Op/Ed: Housing and school enrollment in a mountaintop community going through change

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE, Calif. - A look in the rearview mirror is needed to understand much of what is happening in South Lake Tahoe today, especially where housing and school enrollment are concerned. It is always important to understand the past, how we got to today, and prepare to adjust to the future with a look through the front window.

Enrollment in the Lake Tahoe Unified School District (LTUSD) peaked in the 1994-95 school year when there was an all-time high of 5,978 students, a number that has been dwindling ever since.

One might assume the lower numbers come from rising rents and not enough of a supply of housing, but it started with the opposite - a flight of the middle class. Many who bought homes in the 1970s and 1980s sat on homes that changed very little in value in their first 10-15 years, then things happened, and they happened rapidly.

Home values took a leap in the mid-to-late 1990s when homeowners could sell with doubling their purchase price, then a huge leap around 2005 where it was a lot more than doubling, leaving them with a large profit.

Homeowners cashed out on their investments and moved to where homes were just being built in the Carson Valley and for a fraction of what they just made in profit on their Tahoe homes. A building boom in Nevada attracted many Lake Tahoe residents. Many in the gaming industry took their profit and moved to Las Vegas which was seeing a surge in new casinos and jobs, and new homes, and they were also well-priced.

There was a hit to the local gaming market with the addition of Indian gaming with the passing of the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act in 1988. The right to gaming on tribal land was further secured with the California Indian Self-Reliance Amendment in 2000. To the west of Lake Tahoe, the Jackson Rancheria was built, followed over the years by the Red Hawk, Cache Creek, Thunder Valley, as well as a Hard Rock and Harrah's. Many employed in gaming left the Tahoe area when the jobs started evaporating, especially those in middle management.

A healthy economy in California in 2000 resulted in a rise in home sales in South Lake Tahoe with a drop in home rentals. The stronger economy enabled people from large urban areas to purchase homes in Tahoe, and that trend continued during the recession but for different reasons.

Homes were sold to populations that could afford the new, higher prices - and most were not living in the area. Then, when the recession hit, homes were selling quickly in South Lake Tahoe and the only ones poised to afford to purchase a home with cash swooped in to grab the inventory. Many of those working and living in the San Francisco Bay Area couldn't afford homes there, but they could buy one in South Lake Tahoe while continuing to rent a house in their hometown. They could pay $200k-$400K in cash, and many locals could not. Homes lost to foreclosure or sold before that could happen often housed local renters.

New homes that have been built over the last few decades in the region have been getting steadily larger. With the costs involved in getting that first shovel in the ground, it wasn't making financial sense for many builders to build smaller homes.

Renters have been forced from homes over the last 30 years as new owners came in, and either turned the home into a short-term rental or a second home for their own use. Their desire to own a vacation home was a goal that could be met. Then when COVID hit, many decided to make Tahoe their permanent home, many in newly purchased homes that were formerly rental properties.

While LTUSD enrollment dropped in the 1990s, staffing levels didn't have to since more teachers were needed to cover new requirements of classroom size (reduction for K-3 to a maximum of 24 children). Funding for schools, though, has been taking a hit since LTUSD is reimbursed by the state on a per-pupil basis. Another trend that started in the 1990s was homeschooling, and that involves an unknown number of students.

Amid the recession in 2008, a bond measure passed for LTUSD. Perhaps many thought it would help end the exodus of families. Funds created a new state-of-the-art high school campus along with other upgrades and a new facility was great for the local economy.

There are many variables affecting enrollment in South Lake Tahoe from weather to housing costs to jobs, given the transient nature of the community. Plus, a dropping birth-rate could affect numbers, but that is also an unknown variable at this time.

Below is the school enrollment in South Lake Tahoe, El Dorado County, and California. The years since COVID have seen more leveling out of enrollment in South Lake Tahoe, and the El Dorado County population has gone from under 150,000 in 1995 to 193,000 in 2021; the City of South Lake Tahoe's has not moved much since 1970 when it was 21,580 to 21,430 in 2010, and 21,414 in 2021.

1995/96 - 5,845 - county 28,632 - state 5,467,224
2000/01 - 5,712 - county 28,795 - state 6,050,895
2005/06 - 4,520 - county 29,332 - state 6,312,436
2010/11 - 3,878 - county 29,972 - state 6,217,002
2015/16 - 3,996 - county 26,987 - state 6,226,737
2020/21 - 3,725 - county 30,131 - state 6,002,523
2021/22 - 3,641 - county 30,637 - state 5,892,240
2022/23 - 3,648 - county 31,268 - state 5,852,544
2023/24 - 3,604 - other data unavailable at this time

With this data, one can see that while enrollment is now steadying after dropping in South Lake Tahoe (and has been for the last 28 years), the population has remained almost the same in the city limits.

As people make decisions in the coming months with November's elections and other policies and programs, it's important to understand the numbers. There is still more to get a grasp on, like - How many people commute to work in South Lake Tahoe, how many prefer living "off the hill," and how many want to live in Nevada as opposed to California?

There is no one-size-fits-all for the causes, effects, or solutions, but getting a grasp on the numbers and the history helps make smart decisions for the future.