Chance of rain and snow around Lake Tahoe by end of week, sunny and mild to start it off

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE, Calif. - Mild and dry conditions with gusty winds will persist through Wednesday in the Lake Tahoe Basin and Western Nevada. An upper low lingering along the California coast will eventually move across portions of California and Nevada late this week with cooler temperatures, said the National Weather Service (NWS) in Reno. Periods of mountain snow showers and valley rain showers are expected with travel impacts will be possible mid to late week for the Sierra passes in heavier snow showers.

The timing of periods of rain and snow in the forecast has changed often as the system approaches. There are storm Uncertainties; The simulations continue to struggle with the upper low settling in off the West Coast. The primary issue lies in the fact that the low is projected to cut off from the main flow. This unhinged, nuisance low then becomes more unpredictable to forecast, said NWS Reno.

Sierra Snow: The probability for 12 inches of snow mid to late week is sitting around 10-20 percent chances for the highest peaks in the Tahoe Basin and 55-75 percent for Mono County peaks. Sierra communities stand at a slight (five percent) chance of up to 4" of snow through the week as most precipitation will come in the form of rain. Plan on hit-or-miss Sierra passes travel Wednesday into next weekend. Check the roads before you go and have the proper winter vehicle gear (chains, extra supplies, etc).

NWS Reno said the forecast for Thanksgiving shows no strong signals of rain or snow. They said the forecast is leaning towards warmer and drier, but the solutions are almost solidly divided in half. Half with a ridge across the West coast, while the other half displays some flavor of cold, intermountain trough.

The NWS Reno forecast for South Lake Tahoe this week:

Monday - Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Monday Night - Mostly clear, with a low around 29. South wind around 10 mph.

Tuesday - Sunny, with a high near 59. South wind 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday Night - Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday - A 40 percent chance of rain after 11 am. Snow level rising to 7300 feet in the afternoon. Partly sunny, with a high near 56. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday Night - Rain likely before 5 am, then rain likely, possibly mixed with snow. Snow level 7600 feet. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 28. The chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation is expected.

Thursday - A chance of rain and snow before 8 am, then a chance of rain. Snow level 7700 feet. Partly sunny, with a high near 52.

Thursday Night - A chance of rain before 2 am, then a chance of rain and snow. Snow level 7800 feet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26.

Friday - A chance of rain and snow before 8 am, then rain likely. Snow level is 7300 feet rising to 7800 feet in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50.

Friday Night - Rain and snow likely. The snow level is 7700 feet. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 28.

Saturday - A chance of rain and snow. Snow level is 7300 feet rising to 7800 feet in the afternoon. Partly sunny, with a high near 50.

Saturday Night - A chance of rain and snow. Snow level 7400 feet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.

Sunday - Mostly sunny, with a high near 52.