90-day temperature and precipitation outlook for Lake Tahoe

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE, Calif. - After a good start to the Sierra snowpack, big storms have almost been non-existent this winter. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports January 2020 was the fifth warmest on record in the US.

Back in October, we shared NOAA's forecast prediction of a drier and warmer than normal winter due to an absence of El Nino and La Nina this winter. They continued that theme with their first 90-day forecast for the winter in November 2019.

The current 90-forecast maps from NOAA's Climate Center show a high probability of below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures.

Long-range forecasting doesn't always paint the true picture. The National Weather Service in Reno creates an eight-day forecast where they can examine current conditions and examine weather models. They said because of the decent amount of precipitation earlier this season we aren't in a drought, just a dry winter though some areas of California are trending towards a drought tendency per NOAA.

The snowpack in the Sierra was measured last week and is currently 79 percent of normal for this time of year. This isn't unusual and has been more common than not over the past several years.

The ski resorts around Lake Tahoe have received decent snowfall totals with much of that coming at the end of 2019. Heavenly Mountain Resort reports a 29" snow depth at the base, 58" at the summit and has a total for the season of 183 inches. They have 95 of their 97 trails open. Squaw Valley reports a 41" snow depth at the base and 94" at the summit with 191 of their 245 trails open. Over at Diamond Peak, the base is 68" with an 82" depth at the summit. 28 of their 30 trails are open. Sierra-at-Tahoe's base has 39" of snow and at the summit, there is 64". 43 of their 46 trails are open.

The current forecast for South Lake Tahoe shows the warm and dry trend will persist through Saturday, February 8. A strong cold front over the weekend will bring gusty winds, a few snow showers and a sharp drop in temperatures by Sunday.