Approaching Lake Tahoe weather system not much of a snowmaker at lake level

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE, Calif. - There hasn't been much precipitation over California and the Sierra since summer but approaching weather systems may change that.

A series of systems through the weekend will break down the persistent dry pattern, with the first bringing increased winds late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with fire danger concerns for portions of Mono County. Rain and snow chances arrive Friday night and Saturday with a second round Sunday. Another period of gusty winds is looking likely for Sunday, according to the National Weather Service (NWS) Reno.

On Thursday, most areas will see gusts peak between 20 and 30 mph with choppy conditions on Lake Tahoe by late afternoon and Pyramid Lake after dark. As far as precipitation, with the low passing by so far north there is little or no chance for measurable precipitation.

Friday has more chance for rain and snow in the upper elevations. Perhaps 3-7 inches in the high Sierra and a couple inches across northern Washoe County and the Surprise Valley, as well as for the Lake Tahoe/Truckee areas.

NWS Reno says precipitation will taper off during the day on Saturday as the
moisture feed breaks with a brief ridge building back overhead. A fast moving storm system on Sunday--not very strong by Sierra standards but any moisture is welcome as the region has been dry for more than three weeks.

The Sunday storm is not particularly cold, with snow levels generally starting around 7500 feet, and remaining near or above 7000 feet when the heaviest precipitation pushes through. By the time the snow levels drop, much of the precipitation will be winding down. Current snowfall projections range from 4-8" for areas above 7500 feet around Tahoe, and 2-5" along the Sierra crest in Alpine/Mono counties. At lake level around Tahoe and along US-395 in Mono
County, snowfall amounts look sparse with maybe up to 1" Sunday night.

For lower elevations Sunday afternoon-night, rainfall projections are currently from 0.20-0.60" for northeast California, the Tahoe basin and far northwest Nevada, then drop off to between 0.10-0.20" for the US-395 corridor including Reno-Carson southward through Mono County.

Weekend forecast for Lake Tahoe from NWS Reno:

Friday - Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night - Snow likely, mainly after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Saturday - Rain and snow likely before 10am, then rain likely between 10am and 1pm, then rain and snow likely after 1pm. Snow level 6900 feet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. West wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Saturday Night - A 30 percent chance of rain after 4am. Snow level 6600 feet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Southwest wind around 5 mph.

Sunday - Rain likely, mainly after 10am. Snow level 7600 feet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday Night - Rain likely before 10pm, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.